County BOS Approves Metro Phase 2 Plan
Authorization from Fairfax County final step in agreement to move forward with above-ground station, lower price tag for Metro.
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The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors approved changes on Tuesday to the funding agreement for the second phase of the Dulles Rail project.
The plan will save as much as an estimated $757 million in fees for Dulles Toll Road users, county officials said.
The board’s authorization was the final step needed to adopt the changes. The project’s other partners—the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA), Loudoun County, Commonwealth of Virginia and U.S. Department of Transportation— agreed to the deal last month.
“This strategy brings the cost of Phase 2 back down close to the original estimate and goes a long way to ensure this critical transportation project is completed,” Chairman Sharon Bulova said in a statement. “Dulles Rail remains my top transportation priority and I am glad to approve this strategy.”
Toll road commuters, who are paying for 75 percent of the project’s second phase, will see savings because the deal shaves the total cost by a third—from an estimated $3.8 to $2.8 billion. The most significant source for these savings results from the decision to build an above-ground station at Dulles Airport.
As part of the deal, Fairfax County agreed to help offset costs to toll road drivers by trying to raise third-party funds. This money will be used to pay all or part of the cost to build the Route 28 Metro station and two parking garages. These funds could include parking fees from the Route 28 and Herndon-Monroe garages or contributions from developers.
This change will have a positive impact on rates paid by drivers on the toll road, officials said. Of any outside money raised to build the station and garages, 75 percent will be used to cut costs for toll road users.
Even if new revenue sources can’t be found, Fairfax will pay no more than 16.1 percent of the cost for these facilities, as was previously agreed. Current estimates price the station and two garages at almost $188 million.
As was agreed, total project costs are shared as follows: 16.1 percent by Fairfax County; 4.8 percent by Loudoun County; 4.1 percent by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority; and 75 percent (less any federal and state funding) by Dulles Toll Road revenues.
To help pay for its overall share for the project, the county also plans to apply for a federal loan of up to $315 million under the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act. With its potentially low interest rate and option to defer repayment, this loan will save taxpayers money.
As another provision of the deal, the county agreed to make a portion of its federal loan available to help reduce costs to toll road drivers if outside money doesn’t cover the cost for building the station and two garages.
To further defray costs for toll road users, the state also agreed to seek $150 million in funding from the Virginia General Assembly.
The county’s share for the entire Dulles Rail project is estimated to be $893 to $923 million. Of this amount, $730 million—or approximately 80 percent—will be paid for by voluntary, special tax districts created by landowners.
In the Phase 1 Tax District, landowners agreed to pay up to 29 cents per $100 of the assessed value of commercial and industrial properties, up to a total of $400 million. Phase 2 District property owners agreed to pay up to 25 cents per $100, up to a total of $330 million.
The second phase of the rail project runs from Wiehle Avenue in Reston. to Route 772 in Loudoun County. The second phase of the project is estimated to be completed in 2017.The first phase of the project - from Tysons Corner to Reston's Wiehle Avenue - is currently under construction, and it expected to be completed in late 2013.
Terry Maynard
2:09 pm on Tuesday, December 6, 2011
"The plan will save as much as an estimated $757 million in fees for Dulles Toll Road users, county officials said."
Please note that the above statement compares the so-far worst case cost scenario (a Metro station under Dulles terminal) with the best possible case (above ground station & counties building stations & parking). It marks the 75% of the costs that DTR users would have to pay for the $1 billion difference between these two cost projections. The reality is the worst case was never going to happen, and it's quite likely the best case will see cost overruns of 10%-40% based on Phase 1 experience.
Even without overruns in Phase 2, the tolls will be much higher than projected by Wilbur Smith Associates in 2009--which went to $11.25 in the 2040s when the cost of Phase 2 was put at $2.5B. Now it is at least $2.8B.
SuperG
11:58 pm on Wednesday, December 7, 2011
And you know what I'll do when the tolls get that high and the side roads are congested (they are already), I'll take the Silver Line to work in Reston. After work, I'll get back on it and meet my wife and kids downtown at a Caps, Nats, or Wizards game.
The Convict
2:27 pm on Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Straphangers everywhere rejoice.
Rob Whitfield
5:27 pm on Tuesday, December 6, 2011
In February 2008, Jennifer Mitchell, Deputy Project Director of Finance for the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project submitted a Preliminary Capital Financial Plan to the Federal Transit Administration showing that the average Dulles Toll Road toll rate would increase from $0.60 in 2008/2009 to $1.98 in 2028.
After the March 2009 FTA Phase 1 Full Funding Grant Agreement, MWAA increased radically the projected DTR tolls needed to cover rail capital costs, even before jacking the Phase 2 cost estimate by $1.3 billion to $3.8 billion in September 2010.
Now we are asked to believe that MWAA costs have been cut to $2.8 billion. While almost $400 million in potential savings are attributable to the above grade rather than below grade station at Dulles, MWAA uses a $3.2 billion Phase 2 cost in its proposed 2012 budget scheduled to be adopted December 7.
MWAA forecasts annual tolls to jump from under $100 million today to near $200 million in the 2013 to 2015 period and almost $300 million in the 2016 to 2018 period. A typical trip of $2 each way today will be $6 each way in five years. Annual tolls by 2053 will be $780 million - an almost eightfold increase over today's tolls. For a typical commuter, annual toll costs will jump from $1,000 today to $3,000 by 2016.
The Fairfax County Board majority demonstrated today that they care little about rail costs, tolls or lack of project feasibility; their priority is to benefit Tysons and Dulles Corridor landowner campaign contributors.
David A. LaRock
10:45 pm on Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Well maybe now that both counties have reaffirmed their commitments MWAA can start to reveal at least a little information on how they intend to do their magic tricks like doubling revenue without doubling tolls. That is an especially good trick given that studies show ridership drops by 75% when tolls double.
Yes, MWAA is a bunch of really good magicians or really bad comedians. They plan is to saddle Toll road users, Loudoun, and Fairfax taxpayers with the bill whether the use the darn road or not. Thanks Tim Kaine, we won’t forget you.
Chris
8:18 am on Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Despite what "studies" show, there is absolutely no way that ridership drops by 75% if you were to double the tolls. Maybe for the Greenway, yes, since the toll is already astronomically high, but no way with the Toll Road.
Terry Maynard
10:46 am on Wednesday, December 7, 2011
For Chris & others: Research underpinning Reston 2020's April 2010 report on the impact of increased tolls suggested that the "elasticity of demand" for toll road use in the face of rising tolls was about -.25. That is, a doubling (100%) increase would lead to a 25% reduction to usage. This is generally consistent with research by experts that points to elasticities generally ranging from -.22 to -.27.
In fact, the effect of higher tolls can be wide ranging, driven by such factors as the available of transportation alternatives (Rt. & the Silver Line for DTR) and "optimism bias" in official forecasts. A report on Reston 2020's blog provides an overview of the related research Patch readers may find interesting--and more than a little depressing. Check it out: http://reston2020.blogspot.com/2011/11/toll-avoidance-and-transportatin.html
Matt Genkinger
12:08 pm on Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Meanwhile, back at WMATA, the executive committee is looking at all of the new employees they can hire and escalators they can pretend to fix after digging into the pockets of Loundon and Prince William county tax payers.
Bob Bruhns
3:18 pm on Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Why won't anyone consider that the costs of the components of Dulles Rail are massively excessive? As one example whose numbers escaped from the grip of MWAA and momentarily got into public view, the cost of the Rt 28 station is supposedly $83 million. Why is it so high? A Metro station in posh Fairfield, Connecticut, costs $43.7 million. Could it possibly be, that maybe, just maybe, our road tolls wouldn't be skyrocketing, if Dulles Rail wasn't a bloated ripoff?
But notice that, once yet again, this will be studiously ignored. People say, "Who cares if this thing is a ripoff? All we care about are the high tolls." Amazing.